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Accounting Assignment代寫 情景分析

2016-12-15 05:35

情景分析是一種風險分析方法。它需要找出有效的因素和內部條件做一個假設和預測的事件。然后嘗試分析和預測未來的發展和結果事件的情況。它是一種定性的方法分析決策者的選擇(Ndiaye和Pesenti拉克斯,2006)。因為場景分析的復雜性,很難預測未來。有時未來可能會影響其他事故,所以有時不能得到正確結果的分析現實(Ndiaye和Pesenti拉克斯,2006)。

根據情景分析,這表明每一個變量的一個“好”的情況下需要一個小比基本情況。其他的方式,每一個變量“糟糕”的情況下需要一個小比基本情況(阿諾德,2005)。所以盡量設置一些日期從它,做一個假設:

正如我們所知,它不會被接受該項目,如果最好的和更糟的結果是負面的。它將被接受,如果最好的和糟糕的結果是積極的(僧侶和米,2004)。從圖表顯示的比較案例基本情況和最佳情況越糟糕。

稍微更改數據,它表明,最壞的情況下凈現值為負,和最好的情況下NPV是正的。用另一種方式,它總是發生,所以這是正常的結果,沒有任何幫助。最重要的是,它不顯示這個場景分析的有用的結果。

Accounting Assignment代寫 情景分析

Scenario analysis is one of risk analysis method.It need to find out the effective factors and internal condition to make an assumption and prediction of the event.Then try to analysis and predict the future develpment and result of this event conditon.It is a qualitative method for analysis for the choice of  decision maker(Laxton, Ndiaye and Pesenti, 2006).Because of complexity of the scenario analysis,it is difficult to make an prediction of the future.Sometimes the future might affect by other accidents,so it sometimes cannot get a correct result of this analysis to the reality(Laxton, Ndiaye and Pesenti, 2006).
According to the scenario analysis,it shows that every variable of a “good” case need to be a little better than the base case.In the other way,every variable of “worse” case need to be a little worse than the base case (Arnold, 2005). So it try to set some date from it and make an assumption as follow:
 
As we know,it will not be accepted the project,if the best and worse result are negative.It will be accepted,if the best and worse result is positive (Monks and Minow, 2004).From the chart,it show that the comparison of the worse case and best case with base case.
With the slightly change data,it shows that the worst case NPV is negative,and the best case NPV  is positive.In another way,it always happen like that, so it is the normal result and doesn`t have any help.Above all,it does not show the useful result of this scenario analysis.

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